About 1,357 octogenarians would have survived had they been admitted to the ICU
Santiago M Herrero, MD, FCCP
Short link: https://wp.me/p19kQl-RL
Despite how disand what has happened in Spain given the complete lack of transparency of the Ministry of Health regarding patients who died from COVID-19, we can still make fairly accurate estimates of how many octogenarians aged> 80 years old could have been survived.
I don’t understand anything, they have statisticians and epidemiologists working there. The media have it and, as possible, the data offered is not added up and is at a freezing point. They are not aware of the problem.
Also, it is impossible that in the spanish autonomous communities, the counting process has also stopped them. Which country has had this informative break?
What do they seek? What are they hiding?
RENAVE is the National Network of Epidemiological Surveillance of the National Center for Epidemiology (CNE). To do this they do it through the SiVies platform that receive the information from the autonomous communities.
But it is also that they do not do it daily, but every 2 days and sometimes 4 days go by without updating data and even a week. This platform should help researchers to carry out their functions, but this is impossible.After a personal investigation, there are between 13,000 to 15,000 deaths in undeclared cases. Why?There is a clear difference between what is reported to the CNE and what the MoMo database (also from the Ministry). MoMo is a system for monitoring daily mortality from all causes. The MoMo dashboard is updated daily with the latest information available on all-cause mortality. Except the reports were frozen on June 4 and have not returned until June 9. Since then there is no longer a MoMo report. Frozen!
Let’s see, even a blind person can see this (it is a way of saying that whoever does not see it, lies).
I can say that the total figure is not 27,128, but around 40,000 minimum and 43,000 maximum. Starting June 14, go find out, everything data is frozen! The lack of transparency in this country borders on insanity. There are over 16,000 excess deaths.
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OCTOGENARIANS
During the COVID-19 pandemic and since there are reports from last March 23 to May 29, a total of 381 patients have been admitted.
The revenue count since then ranges from 8.93% of all ICU admissions, to suddenly drop to 4.55% over a period of one week. It also coincides in the group of patients between 70-79 years (from 34.92% progressively decreases to 28.45% on April 27) while 60-69 years rises as well as that of 50-59 years. Both with positive linear trends.
Until May 29 there have been almost 59,000 people aged 80 years with COVID, of whom 25,000 were hospitalized and only 381 were admitted to the ICUs, which represents 5.13% of the population admitted to the ICU while the septuagenarians were 31.5 %. 12,834 patients over the age of 80 have died (21.8%), but not in the ICU (the data here is hidden). These data have been officially recognized during the open period of the COVID-19 Registry of the Ministry of Health throughout the Spanish territory. Once turned off (and we have been without a new data for a month) everything seems to walk in the dark.
The population of septuagenarians who have reached the ICU of 2,195 patients, which is 10.5% of hospitalized cases and of which overall deaths were 14.6% (4,980 patients).
Taking the rule of at least 50% of octogenarian hospitalizations (29,478), 10% would have been admitted to the ICU (2,300 patients) having at least 2 chronic diseases, and taking a 41% mortality, 943 paceintes would have died and saved 1,357.
Has there been any kind of limitation? I am sure that the spanish doctors have done everything possible in their daily work. But some question is still in the cloud: Have decision-makers in health been encouraged to focus on possible long-term rather than short-term prognostic outcomes?
That’s it …. I will continue to observe this sort of data assassination and lack of transparency.